Election expert Professor John Curtice has said that the "most probable" outcome of the election will see the SNP falling short of achieving a majority at the Scottish Parliament.
Speaking after 48 out of a possible 129 seats were declared on Friday, Professor Curtice said that the SNP’s failure to capture key seats such as Dumbarton, and its share of the vote overall, meant it would be “one or two” seats short of taking total control at Holyrood.
However, he said it was likely that an SNP/Green majority would be established, paving the way for an attempt to be made to hold a second independence referendum in the coming years.
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The SNP is the only party to make gains so far in the election, with more counts to come tomorrow, including the results of the regional list.
Nicola Sturgeon’s party has picked up East Lothian from Labour and Ayr and Edinburgh Central from the Conservatives.
But by the complicated arithmetic of the Holyrood election system, this could cost them seats they already hold through the list system, giving them few net gains.
Professor Curtice told the BBC: "On the basis of the "most probable results so far, we think it's less than likely [that the SNP will gain a majority]. They [the SNP] might just pick up a list seat in the Highlands and Islands, and if all of that happened that might take them to 65.
"But I think the most probable outcome is the SNP is going to be one or two seats short [of a majority], and we are therefore looking at and SNP/Green majority for a referendum, rather than the SNP on their own.”
The academic said this would have repercussions for the constitutional debate, and may even hasten a confrontation between the nationalists and Boris Johnson’s government.
He said: "I think two things might flow from that. First, is that the UK Government might feel more emboldened to say 'no' to the request which is bound to happen at some point from the new parliament.
"But secondly, it may actually speed up the constitutional clash. One suspects that some people inside the SNP will regard this as a disappointment and some of them at least will argue that one reason for this is Ms Sturgeon has not been pursuing the independence project and the independence referendum strongly enough.
"Ms Sturgeon is going to be in a weaker position, vis a vi her own party, and that will give her less room for maneuver in terms of trying to play the timing of the referendum or the referendum request long, rather than short."
He added: "Ms Sturgeon, because she's in a weaker position might want to push for the referendum more strongly, but at the same time Boris Johnson might feel more emboldened to try and put her off."
Professor Curtice said that any attempt by Boris Johnson to hold a snap referendum when it appeared that Scotland’s appetite for independence had receded would be an “extraordinary gamble”, given that it was one the UK government could easily lose.
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He said: “We are talking about a country that's divided down the middle on the merits of independence. It's going to be a gamble for both sides.
"Mr Johnson would be facing the possibility that he would actually lose. So there’s some pretty obvious downside risks in pursuing that one. One, you arguably undermine the credibility of your central message in your election campaign that's just been concluded.
"And secondly, you are bringing on a contest by which you are by no means guaranteed to win."
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